1) Know your anchor numbers

Lock these in during training so you can set realistic race targets:

• Critical power / Functional threshold:

  • Running: Critical Power (CP) or threshold pace/speed.
  • Cycling: FTP (power you can hold ~60 minutes).

• Threshold heart rate (LTHR) and aerobic decoupling (how HR drifts vs power/pace in long efforts).
• Recent race-equivalent pace or power (5K/10K/HM, 20–60 min TT).
• Course-specific economy: cadence you sustain, comfortable RPE, downhill and uphill efficiency.
• Environment tolerance: heat/altitude history, typical sweat rate, carbohydrate intake your gut tolerates.

2) Convert fitness to target pace/power

Use these evidence-based ranges to set your starting plan. Calibrate with your training files.

Running (by power or intensity)

• 5K: 100–105% of CP; HR finishes at/just above LTHR.
• 10K: 95–100% of CP; near LTHR late.
• Half marathon: 90–94% of CP; 5–10 bpm below LTHR for the first half.
• Marathon: 85–90% of CP; 10–15 bpm below LTHR until 30 km, then close the gap if feeling strong.

If pacing by speed: use your recent race or threshold pace and aim for a slight negative split (second half 0.5–1.0% quicker if conditions allow).

Cycling (time trial, triathlon bike leg)

• 20–40 km TT: 95–100% of FTP (flat), 92–97% (hilly).
• 70.3 tri (90 km): 75–85% of FTP depending on run goals and heat.
• Ironman (180 km): 65–75% of FTP; target Variability Index (VI) ≤ 1.05 on flat, ≤ 1.08 on rolling courses.

For road races with surges, set a strong average target plus caps: don’t exceed 120–130% of FTP for more than brief hills or accelerations; keep average NP within your event range.

3) Adjust for course and conditions

• Elevation: cap uphill power; use free speed downhill. Expect pace to vary—hold effort steady, not speed.
• Wind: hold power, not speed. Push slightly harder into headwinds, ease slightly with tailwinds while keeping average on target.
• Heat/humidity: reduce targets by ~2–3% per 5°C above ~20°C; prioritize HR caps and fueling. Pre-cool and hydrate.
• Altitude: reduce targets by ~1–2% per 300 m above 1000 m unless acclimated.
• Surface/turns: allow time where traction or cornering slows you; don’t chase pace spikes.

4) Build your pacing plan

Set three guardrails

• Power/pace target: your primary anchor.
• Heart rate ceiling: early race cap (LTHR minus 5–15 bpm depending on distance); OK to lift late if feeling good.
• RPE check: must feel controlled early; if not, you’re overcooking it.

Structure the race

• Start (first 5–10 minutes):

  • Running: hold 95–98% of target pace/power; let HR rise gradually.
  • Cycling: 90–95% of target power for 5–10 minutes, then settle.

• Middle:

  • Hold average on target; cap surges uphill at +5–10% (short hills) or +2–5% (long climbs).
  • Use downhills to keep effort smooth (don’t chase equal pace).

• Finish:

  • When HR is stable and nutrition is landing, lift to the top of your range; close hard in the final 10–20%.

Course-specific caps

• Max uphill power: +5–10% over target; never exceed ~110% (tri) or ~115% (TT) for >1–2 minutes.
• Descent floor: allow power to drop; prioritize aero and safe cadence over forcing power.
• HR caps: keep below LTHR until the final third (short races) or final quarter (long races).

5) Set up your devices for clarity

• Primary screen:

  • Cycling: 3 s power, lap power, HR, cadence, time.
  • Running: current power or pace (with smoothing), lap pace, HR, cadence, distance.

• Alerts: HR ceiling, power high/low bands, fueling timer every 15–20 minutes, drink reminder every 10–12 minutes.
• Auto-lap by distance (e.g., 1 km/1 mile) for split discipline; use manual laps for course segments (climb, flat, final push).
• Calibrate sensors pre-race; disable firmware updates and phone alerts.

6) Fueling and hydration to protect your pace

• Carbohydrates: 60–90 g/hour for most; up to 100–120 g/hour if gut-trained (2:1 glucose:fructose blend helps).
• Fluids: ~0.4–0.8 L/hour, adjusted for sweat rate, body size, weather.
• Sodium: 500–800 mg/hour typical; heavy/salty sweaters may need 800–1200 mg/hour.
• Execution: slow slightly at aid stations to get full intake; a 2–5 s slowdown is faster than missing fuel and fading later.

7) Mid-race decision rules

• If HR is 5–10 bpm high early at target power/pace:

  • Back off 3–5% for 5–10 minutes; increase cooling/fluid; reassess.

• If power/pace feels too easy with low HR after 25–33% of race:

  • Lift 1–2% and recheck in 5–10 minutes; avoid big jumps.

• Into headwind or on climbs:

  • Hold power steady; ignore pace drops; protect caps.

• GI discomfort or cramping:

  • Ease intensity for 5–10 minutes; take in fluids/electrolytes; then return to target.

• Final 10–20%:

  • Let HR rise toward LTHR (or slightly above in short events) and spend your saved matches.

8) Quick templates by event

5K run

• First 1 km: 98–100% of goal pace or 100% of CP; settle rhythm.
• Middle 3 km: lock target; HR climbs toward LTHR.
• Last km: lift to 102–105% of CP; strong finish.

10K run

• First 2 km conservative (95–98% of target pace); build to 95–100% CP.
• Last 2 km: press if HR and legs allow.

Half marathon

• First 5 km at 90–92% CP; HR 5–10 bpm under LTHR.
• Middle: hold; fuel every 15–20 minutes.
• Last 5 km: lift if HR stable and form solid.

Marathon

• First 10 km at 85–88% CP; patience.
• Middle: stay smooth; walk 5–10 s through aid if needed to nail fueling.
• After 30 km: nudge to 88–90% CP if stable; otherwise defend form.

40 km cycling TT

• First 10 minutes at 95% of target; then 98–100% FTP.
• Cap short hills at +5–8%; stay aero on descents.
• Last 10 minutes: lift 2–3% if you’ve kept VI ≤ 1.05.

Triathlon bike (70.3 / Ironman)

• 70.3: ride 75–85% FTP; VI ≤ 1.06; begin run with HR under control.
• Ironman: ride 65–75% FTP; VI ≤ 1.05; fuel relentlessly; run starts easy.

9) After-action learning

• Compare target vs. actual: pace/power by segment, HR drift, VI, NP/AP.
• Note where you lost speed: start too hard, under-fueled, overheated, pacing on climbs.
• Update your anchors (CP/FTP, LTHR) and adjust caps for the next race.